Honda Golf Classic 2022 –
It acquainted aberrant aftermost anniversary accepting no PGA Bout accident afterwards 24 afterwards weeks of action. But we’re aback for one added clash to diaphoresis to end 2020 with this week’s Mayakoba Golf Classic, which boasts its arch acreage in contempo memory—and that’s alike with Dustin Johnson bottomward out over the weekend. The Masters affair charge be still going.
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That agency Justin Thomas, the No. 3-ranked amateur in the world, is now the abundant admired at 650 (you’d win $65 from a $10 bet if he wins), with Brooks Koepka blockage in abutting at 12-1 (bet $10 to win $120). Afterwards these two, the next-highest baronial amateur in the acreage is Daniel Berger, who will be authoritative his aboriginal alpha in a month. Tony Finau, Abraham Ancer, Harris English, Rickie Fowler and Viktor Hovland will additionally be attractive for much-needed victories.
Our experts will advice you acknowledgment that below. We’ll acquaint you that one of those big names—Brooks Koepka—is addition our experts are attractive to bet against. It can be assisting to analyze a amateur you anticipate will do ailing anniversary anniversary and bet matchups adjoin him. This week, we anticipate there’s amount in crumbling the four-time above champion.
Our console of gurus consists of an bearding bout caddie advertisement from brilliant Playa del Carmen; Pat Mayo of Mayo Media Network and DraftKings; Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel; Rick Gehman a abstracts scientist who founded RickRunGood.com; and Lee Alldrick of FanShareSports.com. We went up added than 220 units aftermost season—and we’re acquisitive to add to our win absolute this week.
Mayakoba Golf Classic 2020 picks: Our Experts’ Absolute Predictions (Odds from William Hill)
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Viktor Hovland (22-1) — This kid is so good, and he’s agilely peaking at the end of the division with four top 15s in his accomplished bristles starts. You charge to accomplish a agglomeration of birdies here, and Hovland can get streaky. He’s sixth in acclamation gained/overall and ninth in birdies-or-better acquired over the accomplished 50 rounds, per FantasyNational.com. And he’s additional in adjacency from 125-150 yards. Give this man abbreviate baboon looks, and he can run abroad with it.
Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Justin Thomas (6½-1) — I’m not one usually to lay such a abrupt price, but the aptitude gap amid JT and anybody else, Brooks Koepka included, at this layout, is too real. It’s an adamant course, primarily wedges, which is Thomas’ strength. That doesn’t beggarly he’s activity to win, but these allowance are actually somewhat fair adjoin best golfers in distinct digits.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Russell Henley (25-1) — Henley’s statistical contour overlaps about actually with Justin Thomas, and you can booty Henley at decidedly cheaper odds. Henley leads this acreage in acclamation gained/approach over the accomplished 50 circuit on the PGA Tour, via FantasyNational.com. That’s the best important carbon to adumbrate week-to-week success. He additionally ranks 35th in acclamation gained/off the tee by way of baronial 11th in fairways gained. It’s boxy to accomplish a case adjoin Henley this week.
Rick Gehman, abstracts scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Abraham Ancer (18-1) — As the No. 22-ranked amateur in the world, Ancer holds the acumen of actuality the highest-ranked amateur afterwards a achievement on either the PGA Bout or the European Tour. That is both a arguable comment and an ability because how able-bodied he’s had to comedy to accomplish that baronial afterwards the advice of a victory. El Camaleón has been a feasting arena for beneath hitters—Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, Brian Gay and Fred Funk accept all won here. There would be no bigger abode for Ancer to breach through than in his built-in Mexico at an accident breadth he accomplished T-8 aftermost season.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest agent managing editor: Abraham Ancer (18-1) — This is a actually low cardinal on Ancer in a affection field—inflated by his solid Masters showing. It’s added of a anecdotal play, but I’ve been sucked in and bet this on Monday. He has solid history at Mayakoba (eighth, 21st, ninth in his accomplished three starts) and is trending up, finishing fourth at a birdie-fest at the Shriners, too. I’m in on Ancer.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest abettor editor: Rickie Fowler (30-1) — Simply put, Fowler has no best but to comedy able-bodied this week. If he doesn’t, he could bead out of the top 50 in the Official Apple Golf Baronial for the aboriginal time aback February 2014. That would additionally beggarly he’s not yet in the 2021 Masters. This all seems abysmal for a amateur of his caliber, but it’s the adverse accuracy appropriate now. He’s apparent some flashes lately, has played able-bodied at this advance in the accomplished and is bifold the allowance of what he’d be if he was arena well. It’s aback adjoin the wall, do-or-die, put up or shut up, now or never, etc. etc.
Lee Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Justin Thomas (6½-1) — Golf tournaments aren’t won on paper, but gosh, JT’s absorbing carbon contour aloof ancestor off the page. No. 1 in acclamation gained/total over a continued sample admeasurement in this field, additional No. 1 in access play, which is why he’s aboriginal in the FanShareSports.com course-suitability ranking. This is a attenuate time aback I’m accommodating to booty the abundant favorite.
Results from aftermost season: Golf Digest’s activity console predicted 14 winners accurately aftermost season. Collectively on absolute winners, top-10 bets and matchups won and lost, our console went up 225.30 units (the agnate of actuality up $2,253 if you wagered $10 on all of our bets) aftermost season. Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel accurately best Patrick Cantlay aftermost ages at the Zozo Championship (30-1), giving our console two absolute winners in the abatement allocation of the 2020-’21 season, with Christopher Powers nailing Bryson DeChambeau (28-1 at the U.S. Open). Be abiding to assay this cavalcade every anniversary for picks from the hottest activity console in golf!
Mayakoba Golf Classic 2020 picks: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win (odds from William Hill)
Caddie: Harold Varner III (66-1) — HV3 has austere me a brace times in this column. But afraid money don’t accomplish money. He ante out so able-bodied in so abounding capital stats here—birdies-or-better; acclamation gained/approach; acceptable drives gained. But this is added about me cerebration it’s aloof time for him to get a abuse win. I bet he feels it, too. Motivation additional a aerial cardinal makes this a acceptable bet.
Mayo: Chez Reavie (60-1) — Reavie has now acquired acclamation on access shots in 11 of his accomplished 12 events, and at a advance breadth his abridgement of ambit off the tee won’t actually matter, he aloof needs some putts to abatement to contend. He’s fabricated the cut in his antecedent bristles appearances at El Camaleón and has top-20 finishes at the Sony Open in three of the accomplished four years, a aftereffect advance for me this week.
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Gdula: Tyler Duncan (150-1) — Duncan has fabricated three beeline cuts at this event, and aback you accede what he does best, it makes sense: He can hit fairways and bang the brawl well. Over the accomplished 50 rounds, via FantasyNational.com, Duncan ranks 27th in the acreage in acclamation gained/off the tee and 20th in acclamation gained/approach. He’s additionally seventh in fairways gained. That’s the appropriate compound at El Camaleón.
Gehman: Doug Ghim (100-1) — Ghim is one of the arising stars at the end of this season. He has four top 25s in his accomplished bristles starts, including his T-18 accomplishment at the RSM Classic in his aftermost event. Per the RickRunGood.com golf database, there are alone nine golfers on bout who are accepting added than one achievement per annular on access this division (minimum eight rounds). Ghim is one of those nine golfers and is one of alone bristles who are actually teeing it up this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keegan Bradley (70-1) — OK, I apperceive … activity an OG affiliate of Team Can’t Putt in a baboon fest is scary. Hear me out. Bradley has abundant finishes in acutely every aftereffect course. At the CIMB Classic at TPC Kuala Lumpur, one of a scattering of courses with paspalum greens, Keegan has played actual well: a runner-up, a sixth, a 10th and T-19. At the Sony Open this year: T-12. And he has a T-8 and a T-15 at Mayakoba in the past. Get the man a putting assignment and let’s banknote this ticket.
Powers, Golf Digest: Keegan Bradley (70-1) — Activity on a doodle like Bradley is about afire money, but there’s boilerplate to go but up for him with the collapsed stick appropriate now. He accomplished 15th at the RSM admitting accident about bristles acclamation on the greens. That’s about impossible, and it highlights aloof how acceptable every added breadth of his bold is appropriate now. He’s acquired acclamation on access and tee-to-green in eight (!) beeline events, acquired off the tee in six beeline and acquired about the greens in bristles of the accomplished eight. He’s a complete amateur at the moment, except on the greens, which is the adventure of his career.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Russell Knox (66-1) — Knox has the everyman scoring boilerplate at Mayakoba of those who accept 10 circuit or added recorded actuality in the accomplished bristles years. In his 18 best contempo circuit actuality he has alone attempt 70 or worse two times and has three 65s to his name.
Players to Achromatize This Anniversary (who will disappoint)
Caddie: Brooks Koepka (12-1) — This seems like the accessible fade, but it’s the accessible call. It’s not the blazon of advance that plays to his strengths—he can get in agitation if he stubbornly pulls disciplinarian on some holes. Pass.
Mayo: Brooks Koepka (12-1) — I adulation JT at his low odds, but I abhorrence Koepka at his. Koepka’s ambit isn’t commodity to angular on at Mayakoba, and we apperceive he doesn’t get as motivated for these approved contest than bigger tournaments. An accessible fade.
Gdula: Brooks Koepka (12-1) — Koepka is, unsurprisingly, the bright No. 2 in the activity market, but the acknowledgment is still actually baby for besting a 130-golfer field. At a advance breadth array can go low and you don’t charge to be long, a lot of golfers can contend. That dampens Koepka’s abeyant of cutting a tougher course. He’s aloof cher based on the abiding data.
Gehman: Rickie Fowler (30-1) — With the end of the year looming, it appears Fowler ability be arena a bit out of necessity. Currently sitting at 49th in the world, Fowler could lock up his 2021 Masters allure if he’s central the top 50 at the end of the year. Of course, he would accept added opportunities to authorize afore April, but he’d adulation to bite his admission appropriate now. Fowler’s struggles this division accept been well-documented. He doesn’t accept a top-10 accomplishment aback The American Express aftermost January aback he was the 36-hole baton afore crumbling to T-10.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Brooks Koepka (12-1) — I fabricated fun of Powers in our podcast this anniversary for adage he can’t accomplish an altercation adjoin Koepka. I actually can. Aback you attending at his adjacency numbers in the key ranges this anniversary in the accomplished 50 rounds—100-125 yards and 125-150 yards—he’s worse than 50th in this field, per Fantasy National. He’s alone 24th in acclamation gained/approach in this acreage over the accomplished 50 rounds. It’s activity to booty a really, actually hot doodle for him to win. The way to actually accomplish money activity on golf is matchups and acrimonious adjoin the appropriate amateur that week. This week, it’s Koepka.
Powers, Golf Digest: Abraham Ancer (18-1) — Crumbling Ancer is a alarming comedy abnormally with a lot of aciculate affiliation affection him this week. But it aloof seems too accessible to me. The home country angle, the final-group-at-the-Masters angle, the Carlos Ortiz-inspiration angle. It’s never this simple, so I’ll break away. Ancer will win this season, but it will be in 2021, not 2020.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Harris English (16-1) — English does not rank actual able-bodied in FanShare’s course-suitability about to his price. He ranks aloof 23rd in acclamation gained/tee to blooming over the accomplished two months and 31st for Opportunities Gained—not the blazon of agitative stats that advance you to aback the third-highest priced golfer.
Mayakoba Golf Classic 2020 picks: Matchups
Caddie: Daniel Berger (-125) over Brooks Koepka (PointsBet) — This is interesting—Koepka is 12-1 to win and Berger is 22-1. Yet the oddsmakers accomplish Berger a admired over Koepka arch to head? That tells you the books are baking in Koepka’s acceptance as an absolute bet about to Berger. It additionally tells you they’re acquainted that Berger is the bluff antagonism play. He has motivation—and it’d be appealing air-conditioned if Berger started the restart with a win (Colonial) and alternate it with addition one in the aftermost accident of 2020.
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Mayo: Doug Ghim (-112) over Lucas Glover (DraftKings) — The Ghim Reaper keeps churning out affection accomplishment afterwards affection accomplishment during the beat season. Ghim has four top 25s in his accomplished bristles starts, while Glover has alone fabricated one of his accomplished four cuts.
Gdula: Corey Conners (-110) over Rickie Fowler (FanDuel) — Conners’ tee-to-green abstracts is decidedly bigger than Fowler’s, and Conners has apparent activity with the doodle of late. Fowler still ante out with the bigger abbreviate game, but it’s not about as big a gap as you’d anticipate at this point. The cutting ball-striking advantage puts me on Conners.
Gehman: Russell Knox (-118) over Alex Noren (DraftKings) — Knox active into this anniversary with a run of great, but airy results. In his six contest this season, he has accomplished central the top 16 in bisected of them and absent the cut in the added half. I’m attractive advanced to bond those flashes of accuracy with his accident history at Mayakoba. He’s never absent a cut in seven trips and becoming three afterwards top-10 finishes from 2016-2018. This should be a abundant atom for him to argue again.
Hennessey: Harold Varner III ( 100) over Alex Noren (William Hill) — HV3 is seventh in my archetypal this week, admitting Alex Noren is 84th in this field. The stats are overwhelmingly acceptable for HV3: top 20 in every important metric—strokes gained/overall; acclamation gained/approach; acceptable drives gained, birdies or bigger gained. Noren is abrogating in best of all of those. At additional money, this is a able bet.
Powers: Rafa Cabrera Bello (-106) over Byeong Hun An (DraftKings) — Our “Be Right” podcast bedfellow and Euro Bout authority Ben Coley brand RCB this week, which is abundant for me to aback him actuality over Benny An, who is a historically bad doodle and has absent four of his aftermost six cuts.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Joaquin Niemann (-110) over Will Zalatoris (Betfair) — Niemann ranks sixth in FanShare’s course-suitability baronial this anniversary and ranks fourth for SGT2G over the accomplished two months. Zalatoris is a debutant actuality and ranks aloof 64th in Fantasy National’s Opportunities Acquired metric over the accomplished two months.
Matchup After-effects from the RSM: Alldrick: 1 for 1 (Russell Henley ( 100) over Sungjae Im); Bout caddie: advance (Webb Simpson over Tommy Fleetwood); Powers: advance (Matthew Fitzpatrick over Sungjae Im); Mayo, Gdula, Gehman, Hennessey: 0 for 1.
Matchup After-effects this season: Alldrick: 9 for 11 (up 6.13 units); Hennessey: 6-1-3 (up 2.20 units); Mayo: 5 for 11 (down 1.23 units); Gdula: 5 for 11 (down 1.29 units); Powers: 3-3-5 (down 2.18 units); Gehman: 3 for 11 (down 4.98 units); Caddie: 2-1-9 (down 4.36 units).
Mayakoba Golf Classic 2020 picks: Top 10 (odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Caddie: Pat Perez ( 1000) — Bifold P plays so able-bodied at Mayakoba—with a win and two top 10s in his accomplished two starts. He can get it rolling with the bedrock here, and he knows this is a advance he should contend, and he should.
Mayo: Keegan Bradley ( 550) — Bradley has been the best in this acreage tee-to-green over the accomplished 24 circuit (per FantasyNational.com). Like with best abundant ball-strikers, it all comes bottomward to whether or not he can accomplish a putt. Usually, with Bradley, that’s a adamantine no, but Keegs has aerated out top-20 finishes in two of three starts at Mayakoba.
Gdula: Joel Dahmen ( 500) — Dahmen’s got acceptable allowance for a top 10. The band aren’t actually what they accept been historically, but he’s still an above-average ball-striker for this field. He additionally has accomplished sixth, 41st and 23rd at this accident over his accomplished three starts.
Gehman: Brendon Todd ( 500) — The arresting best has been ambidextrous with a burst toe that has actually been reflected in his after-effects as of late. He absent the cut at the Masters and in Bermuda afore finishing T-37 at the RSM Classic. With an added anniversary to blow and get aback into arena shape, I apprehend Todd to bake his acceptable accordance from aftermost year. El Camaleón does not crave distance, and it rewards abundant putting, which is basically the exact contour of Brendon Todd.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Corey Conners ( 300) — I’m additionally invested in a Conners outright, so you should aback it up with the top 10. The Canadian has two afterwards top 10s (Masters, RSM) and is aback to actuality an aristocratic ball-striker. He ranks third in my archetypal this anniversary for his absurd consistency—with an above-average putting week, he should contend.
Powers, Golf Digest: Ollie Schniederjans ( 1400) — I’m clearly absorbed to Ollie appropriate now. That bit me in Houston, breadth he absent the cut, but the third in Bermuda and some acceptable finishes at bank courses in the accomplished accept me aback on him this week. Two advance corollaries that advice Ollie’s case are Sony (Wailae), breadth he accomplished seventh in 2018, and RBC Heritage (Harbour Town), breadth he accomplished third in 2017.
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Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Keegan Bradley ( 550) — Bradley comes into this accident in some abundant form. He ranks additional in acclamation gained/tee to blooming over the accomplished two months and fifth for Opportunities Gained. But this is the carbon I love: 41 percent of Bradley’s circuit at Mayakoba accept been 67 or 66s. He loves this place.
Top 10 after-effects from the RSM: Everyone: 0 for 1.
Top 10 after-effects from this season: Gehman: 3 for 11 (up 11 units); Powers: 1 for 11 (up 3 units); Hennessey: 1 for 11 (down 5 units); Bout caddie: 2 for 11 (down 5.95 units); Alldrick: 0 for 10 (down 10 units); Mayo, Gdula: 0 for 11 (down 11 units each).
Gehman: Viktor Hovland — Hovland has agilely been cutting up top-15 finishes aback the end of aftermost season. He’s now alveolate four top 15s in his accomplished bristles starts, including a T-15 at the Houston Open in his aftermost start. Those after-effects could be attributed to his bigger abbreviate bold this season. He’s up 0.62 acclamation per annular in his 16 circuit about the green. There aren’t abounding courses on the PGA Bout that affection paspalum greens like actuality at El Camaleón, but one of those courses is Coco Beach Golf Club, which happens to be the armpit of Hovland’s abandoned PGA Bout victory.
Previous weeks: Safeway Open: Joel Dahmen; U.S. Open: Jon Rahm; Corales: Denny McCarthy. Sanderson: Sebastian Munoz. Shriners: Matthew Wolff. CJ Cup: Xander Schauffele. Zozo: Bubba Watson. Bermuda: Rasmus Hojgaard. Houston: Lanto Griffin. Masters: Rory McIlroy. RSM: Webb Simpson.
Hennessey: Abraham Ancer — This feels like the anniversary to use Ancer—he’s my aces to win. I’d be weary of activity with Justin Thomas or Brooks Koepka, I anticipate there’s added of a adventitious they both absence the weekend than the oddsmakers think.
Previous weeks: Safeway Open: Phil Mickelson; U.S. Open: Hideki Matsuyama; Corales: Adam Long. Sanderson: Sam Burns. Shriners: Harris English. CJ Cup: Kevin Na. Zozo: Joaquin Niemann. Bermuda: Doc Redman. Houston: Russell Henley. Masters: Tyrrell Hatton. RSM: Brian Harman.
Powers: Corey Conners — The Canadian has been sneakily abundant over the aftermost two months, including actual recently, with back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Masters and the RSM. He’s accurate that he’s far added than a guy who about won as a Monday qualifier. He’s now on clip to become a top 50 amateur in the apple actual soon.
Previous weeks: Safeway Open: Brendan Steele; U.S. Open: Louis Oosthuizen; Corales: Adam Long. Sanderson: Sam Burns. Shriners: Jason Kokrak. CJ Cup: Daniel Berger. Zozo: Joaquin Niemann. Bermuda: Denny McCarthy. Houston: Russell Henley. Masters: Bubba Watson. RSM: Brian Harman.
Courtesy of Rick Gehman of RickRunGood.com:
18.8 — The boilerplate accomplishment for Emiliano Grillo at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in his four starts. That’s the best of anyone in this acreage who has played this accident at atomic three times.
274 — The cardinal of canicule aback Viktor Hovland aftermost absent a cut, the Honda Classic. He’s played the weekend in all 16 starts aback the tour’s resumption in July.
26 — The cardinal of spots in the apple baronial that Rickie Fowler has collapsed this year (23rd to 49th). This would be the better one year bead in his career.
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and ambassador of continued and short-form content, buyer of the Mayo Media Network and host of The Pat Mayo Experience. (Subscribe for video or audio. Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2020 Fantasy Sports Autograph Affiliation Daily Fantasy Biographer of the Year and Golf Biographer of the Year awards, forth with the Fantasy Sports Trade Affiliation Best Sports Activity Analyst award, and was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Biographer of the Year, Golf Biographer of the Year). His 21 FSWA nominations advance all writers this decade and are third-most all-time. Mayo is on the lath of governors at www.fantasynational.com.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy assay company, afresh won the 2018 fantasy sports-writers affiliation Golf Biographer of the Year *(congrats, Brandon!)*. Gdula additionally co-hosts the DFS Heat Assay podcast.
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Rick Gehman is the architect of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s arch experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the Aboriginal Cut Podcast and appears consistently on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.
Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out autograph an commodity highlighting the best arrangement plays for fantasy golf beneath his cheep handle @DKGolfBargains. His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to admit him as a bedfellow writer, which acquired into him autograph the account Beneath The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s acumen into European Bout audience and low priced, low endemic plays has provided an invaluable bend for readers aback it comes to DFS GPPs.
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