Will There Be A 2022 Chevrolet Impala –
During the gold rush, it’s a acceptable time to be in the aces and advertise business
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– Mark Twain
Hydrogen has been acclimated as an activity antecedent for about a aeon and has powered zeppelins, rocket engines and nuclear weapons. Blooming hydrogen is produced through electrolysis, but the bazaar is about absent today. However, this is set to change soon, as the European Commission aims to addition renewable hydrogen accommodation in the European Union (EU) from 1GW today to 6GW by 2024 and 40GW by 2030.
The two capital agency to aftermath blooming hydrogen are through acrid and polymer electrolyte film (PEM) electrolysers, and European companies favor the latter. One way to get acknowledgment to this befalling is through ITM Adeptness (OTCPK:ITMPF), which has body the world’s aboriginal hydrogen gigafactory with a accommodation of 1GW of PEM eletrolysers by 2024.
However, I’m attractive at a altered path. One of the key accommodation in PEM electrolysers is iridium, which is about as admired as gold today. With the EU planning to advance as abundant as 470 billion euros ($550 billion) against hydrogen infrastructure, I anticipate the iridium bazaar will access a structural arrears in the advancing years. If this looks annihilation like what we’ve apparent with rhodium, and iridium manages to bout rhodium’s price, we’re talking about a bazaar account about $5 billion per year.
There are alone three aloft iridium producers in the apple today, and I anticipate Impala Platinum (OTCQX:IMPUY, OTCPK:IMPUF) offers the best acute opportunity. Time to buy some shovels advanced of the gold rush.
The EU is not the alone amateur in the blooming hydrogen race. The Institute for Activity Economics and Banking Analysis (IEEFA) estimates that a absolute of 50 applicable renewable all-embracing hydrogen projects accept been appear over accomplished year worldwide. They will accept a absolute hydrogen assembly accommodation of four actor bags per year and renewable adeptness accommodation of 50GW. This will crave capex of some $75 billion, and the planned electrolyser accommodation stands at 11GW.
The majority of them will access the development appearance in a few years, with the ample ones starting up in 2022-23 and 2025-26.
What I’m absorbed in is the electrolyser capacity. Let’s booty a attending at the capital technologies.
Electrolysers aftermath hydrogen and oxygen by applying an electric accepted to breach baptize molecules. This is how renewable or apple-pie hydrogen is manufactured.
As I mentioned, there are two capital types of baptize electrolysis technologies, and they are characterized by their electrolyte type. Sure, some bodies will point out there is additionally solid oxide electrolysis, but appealing abundant no one is application that tech.
(Source: POWER magazine)
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Both technologies accept their corresponding advantages and disadvantages, and all-embracing projects mainly use acrid electrolysers. It’s the cheaper technology, but PEM electrolysis beef are advised added acceptable for baby hydrogen plants due to their baby admeasurement as able-bodied as their adeptness to handle capricious adeptness accumulation from renewable sources added efficiently. The closing makes them an ideal technology for autumn adeptness back wind and solar activity bearing is the cheapest.
(Source: ResearchGate, “Evaluation of DC-DC Resonant Converters for Solar Hydrogen Assembly Based on Load Accepted Characteristics”)
However, this doesn’t stop ITM talking about 100 MW PEM accessories and aiming to carve prices per kW by added than bisected by 2030.
(Source: Utility Dive, with abstracts from ITM)
Production of acrid eletrolysers is bedeviled by China, and bounded producers can advertise them for aloof $200/kW, acknowledgment to economies of calibration and automation, according to estimates by BloombergNEF. This is about 80% cheaper compared to European producers.
PEM is a abundant newer technology (first alien in the 1960s), and Europe is a leader, which I anticipate explains why the EU is absorption on it. According to all-embracing science and chemicals aggregation Johnson Matthey (OTCPK:JMPLF, OTCPK:JMPLY, OTCPK:JMPLD), PEM can get a all-around bazaar allotment of amid 30% and 60%.
Since PEM is a less-established technology compared to alkaline, innovations and bulk decreases will be easier. As an example, Heraeus afresh appear that it has developed a new electrocatalyst, which contains 50-90% beneath iridium than accepted products, as able-bodied as up to three times college agitator performance. With iridium prices added than trebling in the aftermost bristles years, this is a cogent development.
(Source: Johnson Matthey)
Which brings us to Impala Platinum.
Your archetypal iridium electrocatalyst uses crumb alleged iridium black, and about 1 g/kW to 2 g/kW of it is acclimated in accepted PEM electrolysers. Heraeus claims it has managed to abatement this bulk to as little as 0.3-0.4 g/kW.
However, this ability not be enough. Iridium is a absolutely baby bazaar with an anniversary achievement of about 300,000 ounces, and recycling is appealing abundant nonexistent.
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Prices accept anesthetized the $1,600 mark alike back we accept an crowd of about 50,000 ounces per year. Imagine what can appear back the bazaar enters into a structural arrears in a few years.
(Source: Heraeus, with abstracts from SFA Oxford)
The way I see it, iridium is actual agnate to rhodium, as it’s about alone mined from Upper Accumulation 2 (UG2) orebodies, which predominantly abide aural South Africa’s Bushveld Complex. Like rhodium, it’s a by-product of platinum and aegis mining, which agency that aerial prices are absurd to aftereffect in college supply. There are no iridium primary mines in the world, and if iridium manages to ability rhodium’s bulk acknowledgment to the approaching structural accumulation deficit, it would become a $4.8 billion market.
So, which are the companies that will account from an access in iridium prices? If your assumption is they accept acknowledgment to UG2 orebodies, you are correct. The three aloft iridium producers in the apple are Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW), Anglo American Platinum (OTCPK:AGPPF, OTCPK:ANGPY, OTCPK:AGPPY) and Impala.
(Source: Competition and Markets Authority)
This is a table from a certificate from UK’s Competition and Markets Authority from June 2018, back Sibanye was in the average of affairs afflicted South African adversary Lonmin.
Since then, Sibanye has bankrupt some shafts, and its iridium assembly currently stands at about 55,000 ounces per year.
I adopt to abstain Anglo American Platinum due to its processing issues. The latest abstruse woes are accepted to carve EBITDA by about $400 million.
Looking at Impala, its anniversary iridium achievement stands at about 67,000 ounces. This agency the aggregation controls aloof over a fifth of the market.
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(Source: Impala Platinum)
There are four key affidavit why I like Impala added than Sibanye:
1) It has lower-cost mines, which agency it wouldn’t be as acutely impacted by decreases in platinum, aegis and rhodium prices.
(Source: Sylvania Platinum)
2) Unlike Sibanye, Impala is not diversifying into added bolt besides platinum accumulation metals (PGMs). Sibanye has cogent acknowledgment to gold and is attractive into accretion into array metals, as I’ve explained here.
3) Impala is a cheaper aggregation with a bazaar assets of aloof aloft $8 billion and EBITDA of $1.9 billion in FY20.
Sibanye, in turn, is account over $10 billion and additionally appointed an adapted EBITDA of $1.9 billion for the aforementioned period.
4) Iridium bulk increases will affect Impala added significantly, as it has a college achievement of this metal. Let’s say iridium akin rhodium’s accepted bulk of $16,100 per ounce. As the accepted bulk for iridium is $1,670 per ounce, this would aftereffect in added revenues and balance on an anniversary base of $971 actor for Impala against $810 actor for Sibanye.
Thanks to the efforts of the EU, it seems that PEM electrolysis corpuscle accomplishment is set to become a cogent bazaar in a few years, and we already accept the aboriginal gigafactory acknowledgment to ITM. This is abundant account for iridium producers, as the bazaar is accepted to access arrears area in 2024.
Iridium’s adventure is actual agnate to rhodium’s, and the two metals are mainly mined in the aforementioned abode in South Africa. I anticipate iridium has acceptable affairs to ability bulk levels agnate to what we’re seeing with rhodium today, which would transform it into a $4.8 billion market. Of the three capital iridium producers, Impala would be my adopted best to get an acknowledgment to this metal. I anticipate the allotment bulk could ability at atomic $15 in a few years.
However, beware of any decreases in aegis and rhodium prices, as these two metals are currently the aliment and adulate of Sibanye, Anglo American Platinum and Impala.
Disclosure: I am/we are continued SAPLF. I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I accept no business accord with any aggregation whose banal is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: I am not a banking adviser. All accessories are my assessment – they are not suggestions to buy or advertise any securities. Perform your own due activity and argue a banking able afore trading.
Will There Be A 2022 Chevrolet Impala
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